Gold as the metal is a chemical element that has the symbol Au and atomic number 79. Chemical properties of gold is “inert”, meaning that gold does not readily react with other chemical elements. Gold will still be shiny though so long buried in the ground or on the ocean floor.
Gold metal has uses in various industries. But its main use is as jewelry and tools of trade or currency transactions, both of which are hedge. Gold has been used as currency since more than 5000 years ago. Gold is a metal that has a very high value in all cultures in the world, even in its raw form.
Gold is often referred to as a “barometer of fear”. At the moment people worried with the economic situation, they tend to buy gold to protect their property values. Two kinds of economic situations that often make people worry is inflation and deflation. Gold has been proven as a means of storing treasure that are resistant both to inflation and deflation.
GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS
Gold has a limited supply and not readily available, while demand for gold is never reduced, consequently the price of gold tends to increase from year to year.
In everyday reality, the gold price not only depends on the situation of supply and demand. Gold prices are also influenced by the overall economic situation.
Here are some of the economic situation that often affects the price of gold:
1. Changes in exchange rates
The weakening U.S. dollar exchange rate is usually pushed up gold prices. This is because investors choose to sell their dollars and then buy the gold which was considered capable of protecting the value of assets they have. For example, mid-October 2009 exchange rate of the dollar against other currencies continued to decline, while gold prices continue to rise up to a level of $ 1,070 per troy ounce which is an all-time high gold prices.
2. The political situation of the world
The rise in gold prices in late 2002 and early 2003 occurred as a result of an attack to Iraq by U.S. allies. Market participants switch from money market investments and the stock market into gold investment so demand for gold jumped so sharply.
3. Supply and demand
One example of things that can affect the supply and demand of gold is like in mid 1980. At that time, forward sales by mining companies always blamed for rise in gold prices. In business terms, the actual behavior of these mining companies makes sense. By performing a forward sale when the price of gold rose, they can secure the mine output prices at a fairly attractive price.
Another example, the case in mid-1998 in which the gold price continued to decline. At that time, central banks in Europe said would reduce its gold reserves in respect of plans to implement the euro currency. The gold price dropped around 290 dollars per troy ounce.
4. The global economic situation
About 80 percent of the total supply of gold used jewelry industry. Consumption of jewelry is a great influence on the demand side.
When economic conditions improved, the need for jewelry tends to rise. However, from statistical data seen the need for jewelry is more sensitive to gold price fluctuations than it increased by the economic conditions.
The fall of the level of jewelry demand during recessions in the years 1982-1983 due to rising gold prices simultaneously. The fall of the level of jewelry demand in times of recession the early 90s more in tune with the above, at the time the gold price has fall.
Uncertain economic situation may lead to high inflation. Gold is used as a means of hedging against inflation. This benefit has been felt by investor for a long time. With gold, investors got a perfect protection against the decline in purchasing power. Years 1978-1980 when gold prices are booming, while inflation in the U.S. rose from 4 percent to 14 percent, gold prices rose three-fold.
5. Interest rate
When interest rates rise, there is a big effort to keep money on deposit than gold that does not bear interest. This will lead to pressure on gold prices. Conversely, when interest rates fall, gold prices will likely rise.
In theory, if the short-term interest rates rise, the price of gold fell. However, in some cases this theory does not always work. For instance occurred in Indonesia in 1998, due to the Rupiah fell sharply against the U.S. dollar, the Indonesian government raised interest rates significantly. The hope, restrain the rate of increase in U.S. dollar exchange rate. As a result, despite rising interest rates, gold prices also rose.
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